Since at what teams would stand to receive in draft compensation if they lost a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, now its time to explore what each team would have to give up in order to sign a QO-rejecting free agent. To recap the mechanics: if a free agent has played the entire 2023 season with a team and he has never received a qualifying offer in the past, he is eligible to be i sued a QO within five days of the end of the World Series. The qualifying offer is a one-year deal worth the average of the salaries of the top 125 highest-paid players in the majors, and this winter, the QO is around $20.5MM. An eligible free agent can simply accept the QO and thus avoid free agency entirely, but if he rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive some draft-pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere. This only relates to qualified free agents from other teams, as a club can re-sign its own qualified free agents with no penalty. Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will receive should one of their qualified free agents indeed head to another club Revenue Sharing Recipients : Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays Should one of these clubs sign a qualified free agent, they will have to give up their third-highest selection in the 2024 draft. Since most of these smaller-market teams are part of of the draft, their third-highest pick likely wont mean their third-round pick, and the situation could be further complicated if any of the teams trade from their CBR picks (the Competitive Balance selections are the only draft picks eligible to be traded). The Mariners, Orioles, Rays, and Reds stand out as at least somewhat realistic candidates to sign a QO-rejecting free agent this winter. Seattle is expected to make some level of pursuit of the biggest free agent of all in , while the Orioles and Reds might feel the time is right to augment their young core with a bigger name, likely a pitcher. Tampa Bay to stretch its usual payroll Jared Davidson Jersey standards a bit this winter, though it remains to be seen if the Rays would splurge on a major free agent. Teams Who Dont Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didnt Pay The Competitive Balance Tax : Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Nationals, Astros, White Sox, Red Sox For signing a qualified free agent, these teams would have to surrender their second-highest pick of the 2023 draft, and also $500K from their bonus pool during the next international signing period. Many of these clubs could be prominent players in free agency, perhaps further emboldened by their relatively le ser draft penalty. St. Louis to acquire at least three starting pitchers, the Giants are hoping to finally land a big name after their failed pursuits of and last winter, the Cubs could be looking to make a big splash to replace (if Bellinger cant be re-signed at all), and the Red Sox might be looking to return to contention in a big way once their new front office leader is hired. The Team In Limbo : Angels As noted in the last post, it wont be known until December (when the luxury tax numbers are officially calculated by the league) whether or not the Angels have exceeded the $233MM CBT threshold. While this most specifically relates to the compensation Los Angeles may receive if Ohtani signs elsewhere, it also impacts what the Halos would have to give up if they wanted to add another qualified free agent. If the Angels ducked under the CBT line, theyll be in the previous group. But, if the leagues calculations determine that the Angels were in exce s of the tax threshold, theyll be included with the other Competitive Balance Tax Payors : Dodgers, Padres, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Rangers, Blue Jays, Yankees As one would expect, these teams face the stiffest penalties. For signing a QO-rejecting free agent, these clubs would have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as two draft picks their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2024 draft. Ohtanis name looms large in this category, as several of these clubs might not proceed with major offseason busine s until they know one way or the other if they can land the two-way superstar. Conversely, a team that isnt willing to give out the record-setting contract it will likely take to land Ohtani could instead more aggre sively pursue some relatively le s expensive qualified free agents, looking to land a player while some other suitors are occupied. Of course, the higher penalty could also mean that some tax-payor teams instead look for upgrades on the trade market, or at some free agents (i.e. , , , ) who arent eligible for the qualifying offer. Should a club sign more than one qualified free agent, they will have to additionally forfeit their next-highest draft pick. For signing two QO-rejecting free agents, the revenue-sharing group would have to give up their third- and fourth-highest picks in the 2024 draft. The teams who didnt exceed the CBT or receive revenue-sharing funds would have to give up their second- and third-highest picks, as well as $500K more of their international bonus pool. The luxury tax payors would face the heftier penalty of losing four draft picks their second, third, fifth, and sixth-highest selections. Logan Mailloux Jersey