While the offseason has gotten rolling, trade season hasnt quite arrived. The Tigers acquired from Milwaukee in the biggest swap of the first couple weeks. Otherwise, the GM Meetings simply served to set the stage for future transactions. Thatll surely involve some notable trades. Unlike the summer deadline, projecting which players will change hands is difficult at this stage of the offseason. Aside from the As, there arent any teams clearly in rebuild mode. Clubs like the Rockies, Royals, White Sox, Nationals and Angels have uphill paths to contention, yet none has indicated theyre prepared to punt on the 2024 season entirely. The Padres, Twins, Rays, Brewers and Guardians are all aiming to contend but have questions about their payroll. Thats standard operating procedure for Tampa Bay, Milwaukee and Cleveland. San Diego and, to a le ser extent, Minnesota have shown a willingne s to spend in recent years but are scaling back in both cases, likely tied to their uncertain local television rights contracts. That informs the offseason trade landscape, which is headlined by a few stars deep into their arbitration windows. Without many clear rebuilders, its po sible we see more swaps of big leaguers at positions of need between teams that expect to compete. Before we get to the list, a note on methodology. This isnt a strict ranking of players trade value, nor is it solely about likelihood of being moved. Were trying to balance both of those things, an inherently subjective exercise. All projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players 1. , LF, Padres Other than free agency, there may be no bigger story of the offseason than Sotos future in San Diego. He is entering his final year of club control, projected for a $33MM salary that would be the highest ever for an arbitration-eligible player. The Padres are scaling back payroll, perhaps as much as $50MM. They need multiple starting pitchers and could stand to upgrade at first base and/or designated hitter. Trading Soto would allow the Friars to recoup MLB-ready talent while clearing significant spending room for multiple smaller additions. It would also be a devastating blow to the lineup. Soto overcame a relatively slow start (by his standards) to hit .275/.410/.519 with 35 home runs this year. The Padres are still motivated to win in the short term. Barring what would be a stunning run at Ohtani, theyre not going to acquire anyone better than Soto. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller theyll explore a long-term deal. Theres nothing to suggest an extension is particularly likely. Soto rejected a $440MM offer from the Nationals before he was traded at the 2022 deadline. The price would only be higher now that hes a year and a half closer to free agency. In the absence of an extension or a definitive declaration that Soto is off the trade market, speculation will linger. wrote last week that many throughout the industry believe the three-time All-Star will be available. 2. , SP, Brewers 3. , SS, Brewers Burnes and Adames are tied together with good reason. Theyre each one year from the open market and projected for a noteworthy arbitration salary $15.1MM for Burnes, $12.4MM for Adames. Milwaukee is reportedly on the majority of the roster. A former Cy Young winner, Burnes may be the best pitcher available in trade. The right-hander posted a sub-3.00 ERA each season from 2020-22. His 3.39 mark acro s 193 2/3 innings this past season wasnt quite so dominant but is still high-end production. Burnes struck out just under 26% of opposing hitters. While his lowest mark since his rookie season, thats still an above-average figure. Adames is coming off a le s impre sive year. The 28-year-old hit .217/.310/.407 through 638 trips to the plate. Thats slightly below-average offense, although he still connected on 24 home runs. Adames is an excellent defensive shortstop with plus power in an offseason where there are e sentially no free agent shortstops of note. Even with a mediocre on-base percentage, hed generate plenty of interest. 4. , SP, Guardians Develop high-end starting pitching, trade a top starter as they become more expensive, replace him with talented younger arms. The Guardians have trodden this path with , and . Bieber, one year from free agency with a projected $12.2MM salary, could be next. Cleveland has the likes of , , , and (himself a potential trade candidate) as rotation options. While Bieber is no longer a Cy Young caliber pitcher, he turned in a 3.80 ERA with a below-average but serviceable 20.1% strikeout rate over 21 starts this past season. Bieber lost a good chunk of the second half to elbow inflammation but returned to make two appearances in late September. 5. , SP, Rays The Rays signed Glasnow to an extension in August 2022 when he was completing his rehab from Tommy John surgery. The big right-hander is set to make $25MM next season, the largest single-year salary in franchise history. That naturally leads to questions about whether the Rays are prepared to meet that figure, particularly in an offseason where they have a loaded arbitration cla s. If they made him available and hes Glasnow would be a very appealing target. He was quite good this year, working to a 3.53 ERA while striking out more than a third of opponents over 21 starts. An oblique strain cost him the first two months of the season, but he avoided the injured list thereafter. Hes a year away from free agency, making another extension with Tampa Bay appear unlikely. Yet dealing him would represent a tough blow to the Rays chances of competing in 2024. Theyre already down for the entire season and will be without and for at least a good portion of the year. While theyd likely bring back some kind of MLB help as part of a Glasnow trade return, the rotation depth could be a problem. 6. , SP, White Sox Cease had a disappointing follow-up to his Cy Young runner-up campaign. He allowed a 4.58 ERA over 177 innings this past season. Thats nearly two and a half runs higher than his sparkling 2.20 mark of the prior year. As is often the case, his true talent probably lies somewhere in the middle. Cease still mi sed plenty of bats 27.3% strikeout rate, 13.6% swinging strike percentage while i suing a few more walks than ideal. His fastball averaged 95.6 MPH, down a tick from the preceding season. The right-hander has shown the ability to pitch at an ace-caliber level. He is two seasons from free agency and projected for an $8.8MM arbitration salary, making him more affordable than the other high-end starting pitchers near the top of this list. The extra year of control probably gives him more trade value than any of Burnes, Bieber or Glasnow. It also makes him le s likely to be traded this offseason. First-year GM Chris Getz has suggested no one on the roster is truly untouchable, an understandable approach for a team that just lost 101 games. Neither owner Jerry Reinsdorf nor Getz has called this a rebuild, though. Any slim hopes the White Sox may have of competing in 2024 would be dashed by trading Cease, the only above-average starting pitcher on the roster. 7. , RF, Red Sox Verdugos name has been floated in trade rumors for a few seasons. The Red Sox have held onto him thus far. They have a new baseball operations leader in Craig Breslow, who has the team has gotten early Yan Gomes Jersey calls on the left-handed hitting outfielder. and also hit from the left side. Dealing Verdugo could free some at-bats for a right-handed addition while perhaps bringing in immediate help for the pitching staff or at second base. MLBTR projects Verdugo for a $9.2MM salary in his final season of arbitration. Hes coming off another league-average offensive showing, when he hit .264/.324/.421 with 13 home runs through 602 plate appearances. Verdugo hasnt become the All-Star player the Sox envisioned when building the return around him. Hes a solid regular, a high-contact hitter who rates as a decent defender in right field. 8. , CF, Padres 9. , 2B, Padres If the Padres hold Soto, dealing Grisham and/or Kim could be an alternative means of trimming payroll. While neither is going to make anywhere near Soto money in 2024, theyre each on mid-level salaries of note. Grisham is projected for a $4.9MM salary in his second-to-last season of arbitration. Kim is slated for an $8MM salary and will be due a $2MM buyout on a 2025 mutual option at seasons end. Hell be a free agent next winter. Grisham has the extra year of control but is the worse player. He draws plenty of walks but has hit below the Mendoza line in two straight seasons. Hes coming off a .198/.315/.352 line over 555 plate appearances. The appeal is on the other side of the ball. Grisham is an above-average defensive center fielder, keeping him as a low-end regular even if hes best suited for the bottom of a lineup. San Diego could kick over to center field if they dealt Grisham, freeing right field for a bigger offensive threat than Grisham provides. Its a similar story with Kim. Dealing him would free to move back to second base, opening first base for a better hitter. Itd be tough to replace Kims overall production, though. Hes a plus defender at multiple infield spots. He hit .260/.351/.398 with 17 home runs and stole 38 bases in 152 games. Trading Kim isnt as damaging to the lineup as a Soto deal would be, but itd be tougher than parting with Grisham. 10. , 2B, Yankees Another player one year from free agency, Torres is projected for a $15.3MM salary in his last arbitration season. Thats below his market value but a notable figure for a bat-first second baseman a general profile that the league has devalued in recent years. Torres was New Yorks second-best offensive player in 2023, hitting .273/.347/.453 with 25 homers through 672 trips to the plate. Even if theyre not interested in an extension, New York could hold Torres for his final season of club control. Theyre already light on consistent hitting beyond . On the surface, trading their second-best hitter seems counterintuitive. The big question is whether the front office believes is capable of stepping into an everyday second base role in 2024. If they feel the 23-year-old is ready, trading Torres to clear spending room while bringing back outfield or pitching help makes sense. 11. , 2B, Reds The Reds infield surplus has fueled trade speculation on India back to the deadline. Cincinnati didnt seem inclined to make that move midseason, pointing to Indias role as a clubhouse leader. While thats certainly still a factor, he didnt hit well down the stretch and finished the year with a middling .244/.338/.407 batting line. Hes a well below-average keystone defender. Theres an argument the Reds are better off relying on an up-the-middle tandem of and either or . Perhaps the offseason is a better time to consider moving India for a back-end starter. The former Rookie of the Year is projected for a $3.7MM salary and has three seasons of remaining arbitration control. 12. , DH, White Sox Jimnez no longer looks like a core piece for the White Sox. Various injuries have kept him off the field throughout his big league tenure. He only has two seasons of 100+ games and hasnt gotten to 500 plate appearances since his 2019 rookie year. Jimnez was still an excellent hitter when healthy as recently as 2022, when he ran a .295/.358/.500 line over 84 games. His production fell this year, as he posted a .272/.317/.441 slash with 18 homers over 489 trips to the dish. Thats not especially imposing for a player whos best suited at DH. Yet Jimnez has shown greater offensive upside that isnt matched by many in this winters free agent cla s. If the Sox are prepared to move on, another team could look to buy low. Hell make a $13MM salary next year, the final guaranteed season of his contract. Hes guaranteed a $3MM buyout on a $16.5MM club option for 2025 and the deal contains an $18.5MM team option for the 26 campaign. 13. , RF, Twins 14. , 2B, Twins Minnesota president of baseball operations Derek Falvey has the team is paring back payroll. The Athletics Dan Hayes reported the organization could end in the $125-140MM range. At the moment, they have around $120MM in projected spending. The Twins have a few ways to clear room. Trading either Kepler or Polanco would accomplish that. The former is making $10MM, while the latter is playing on a $10.5MM deal. Kepler will be a free agent after next season; Polancos contract has a $12.5MM team option for 2025 that comes with a $750K buyout. Theyre each good players. Kepler is a plus defender in right field who hit .260/.332/.484 with 24 homers this year. Polanco was limited to 80 games but ran a .255/.335/.454 showing. Hes one of the sports better offensive second basemen and saw some third base action for Minnesota late in the year. The Twins have and as left-handed hitting corner outfield options. Theyre deeper on the infield, where and (another trade candidate) are po sibilities at second/third base behind starters and . Top prospect , the No. 8 overall pick in 2022, isnt far from MLB readine s. The Twins could look to move Kepler or Polanco for rotation depth or to bring in a righty bat to balance the lineup. 15. , LF, Rays Arozarena hasnt been the subject of the same level of trade speculation as Glasnow has. Theres an argument the Rays should be more willing to move the All-Star outfielder if theyre looking to create payroll room. Tampa Bay has greater depth in the outfield than they do on their injury-riddled pitching staff. , , , and are all on hand. ( as well.) None of those players is as good as Arozarena. Trading star players for younger talent is familiar territory for the Tampa Bay front office though. Arozarena is projected for a $9MM arbitration salary and controllable for three seasons. Hed have significant trade value if the Rays were to consider moving him. 16.Mariners SP We initially had in this spot. It could just as easily have been or , so well cheat and just mention the Seattle rotation in general. Theyre almost certainly not going to trade . Itd take a lot to pry away . Moving any of Woo, Miller or Hancock could be more appealing for a front office that is looking for ways to add long-term offensive upside. None of that trio has even reached one year of major league service. Hancock only has three big league starts under his belt. Miller and Woo spent more time in the rotation this year, starting 25 and 18 games respectively. They both turned in mid-rotation results. Other clubs probably have differing opinions on which right-hander they prefer. (The Mariners likely have their own slight preferences.) Theyd all have significant value if president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto decided to move one for a bat. 17. , CF, Cardinals It was a bit of a surprise that Carlson didnt change hands over the summer. Various reports suggested the Cards were making him available as they looked for ways to add a controllable starter. It didnt happen, but the same logic applies this winter. Carlson has been surpa sed by as the starting center fielder. St. Louis needs multiple starting pitchers and will likely bring in at least one via trade. Carlson probably has le s value than he did before the deadline. Not only did he finish with a mediocre .219/.318/.333 batting line, he underwent season-ending surgery on his left ankle in September. Thered neverthele s be teams willing to take a shot on a former top prospect who looked like an average or better center fielder 12 months ago. Carlson is projected for a modest $1.8MM salary and has three years of arbitration control. 18. , SP, As Blackburn is arguably the most desirable realistic trade candidate on the Oakland roster. The As have torn things to the studs. Theyre unlikely to compete within the two remaining years of Blackburns arbitration window. The right-hander (30 next month) worked to a 4.43 ERA with a decent 22.4% strikeout rate over 103 2/3 innings this past season. Hes projected for a $3.2MM salary. A Blackburn trade isnt going to be an offseason defining move, but he has a good chance to be flipped to a contender seeking affordable back-end starting pitching. 19. , SP, Blue Jays Perhaps no player had a more disappointing 2023 performance than Manoah. Within one season, he went from Cy Young finalist to e sentially unplayable. The right-hander pitched to a 5.87 ERA over 19 big league outings. His walks more than doubled while his strikeouts fell from 22.9% to a modest 19% clip. He lost his spot in the Toronto rotation and was eventually demoted to the minors. Manoah never pitched in Triple-A and received an injection in his throwing shoulder at the end of the season. How will the Jays proceed after that disastrous year? General manager Ro s Atkins said last week the team would give him on the #5 spot in the rotation. The Jays arent broadcasting a desire to trade him, although they wouldnt be doing themselves any favors if they declared they were ready to move on. Dealing Manoah to bring in a lower upside but higher floor pitcher wouldnt be a surprise with the Jays firmly in win-now mode. The former first-round pick is controllable for four more seasons and wont reach arbitration until next winter. 20. , 2B, Angels The Halos signed Drury to a two-year free agent deal last winter. The righty-hitting infielder turned in a nice season, connecting on 26 home runs with a .262/.306/.497 line acro s 523 plate appearances. Next years $8.5MM salary looks like strong value, particularly in an offseason where the supply of up-the-middle players is thin. The Angels probably arent kicking off a rebuild. They could do a shorter-term retool if Ohtani walks, or they could simply look to move Drury for pitching while turning second base to and/or an external acquisition. 21. , 2B, Cardinals Donovan is a longer shot trade po sibility if the Cards move a controllable hitter for starting pitching. Hes more valuable than Carlson and le s likely to be on the move. At the same time, hed net a clearer rotation upgrade if St. Louis were to give him up likely turning the middle infield over to a combination of , and in that scenario. The 26-year-old hit .284/.365/.422 with 11 homers through 371 plate appearances this past season. A flexor tendon injury pushed him to designated hitter and eventually required surgery that ended his year a couple months early. Hes expected back for Spring Training. If healthy, Donovan brings excellent contact skills and a solid plate approach. Hes a multi-positional defender who can play any of the corners in addition to second base. Donovan has four years of remaining control and wont get to arbitration until next offseason. 22. , DH, Cubs Morel is likely to be a divisive player around the league. He has huge raw power and connected on 26 home runs while slugging .508 in 107 games for the Cubs. The right-handed hitter owns a .241/.311/.471 line in just over 850 MLB plate appearances over the past two seasons. When hes hot, he can carry a lineup. He also strikes out more than 30% of the time and doesnt have a defensive fit. Morel has played all three outfield spots and each of second base, third base and shortstop in the majors. He hasnt rated well anywhere. The Cubs used him mostly at designated hitter this year and have suggested theyll get him in 2024. Thats not a great fit for a plus runner with top-of-the-scale arm strength, yet Morel hasnt shown himself capable of handling more important positions on a regular basis. How teams project Morel defensively could impact both whether hes traded and what kind of return the Cubs could receive. As a first baseman or DH, hes a fringe regular with a statistical profile thatd paint him as a lumbering slugger as opposed to a dynamic athlete. If another team feels he can hold his own at second base or in center field, he becomes far more desirable. The Cubs have no urgency to trade him. Morel is controllable through 2028 and wont reach arbitration for at least another season. Yet president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has alluded to the po sibility of a deal, saying last week that another team might be able to put him [at second base], where the Cubs have . 23. , C, Twins Trading Vzquez is another route Minnesota could consider to clear money. The Twins signed the veteran catcher to a three-year, $30MM free agent deal last offseason. He had a tough first season in Minneapolis, limping to a .223/.280/.318 line over 355 plate appearances albeit with his typical brand of excellent defense. easily surpa sed him as the #1 option on the depth chart. A $10MM per year backup catcher is a luxury for a team trying to trim salary. Minnesota likely wouldnt be able to offload the entire deal, but they could try to shed around half the money or take on a smaller contract in return. Vzquezs year wasnt much worse than a season that got two years and $15MM last winter, while secured a two-year, $6.5MM guarantee despite a much le ser offensive track record. 24. , CF, White Sox Robert has the most trade value of any player on this list. He may also be the least likely to move. Last week, Getz called him a franchise building block and noted he had no plans to proactively shop Robert even as he left open the po sibility of listening to offers on anyone. Its not hard to understand why. Roberts an elite defensive center fielder who connected on 38 home runs while hitting .264/.315/.542. It was the first time he stayed healthy for a 162-game schedule. The result was a season thatll get him down-ballot MVP support. Robert is a prime-aged superstar and, unlike Soto or Burnes, hes nowhere near free agency. Hell make $12.5MM next year, $15MM in 2025 and is controllable via $20MM team options for 2026-27. Trading Robert would signify a complete teardown that the Sox probably dont want. Yet the haul would be astronomical if they decided to go in that direction. 25. , 1B, Mets Alonso was the subject of early offseason trade speculation. With the Mets projecting a le s active offseason and placing a priority on 2025, it wasnt out of the question he could be available. Alonso is projected for a $22MM arbitration salary and will be a free agent after next year. New York has subsequently walked back some of their statements about a po sible retool. Theyre still aiming to compete in 24 even if theyre signaling they wont blow away the top of the free agent market. First-year president of baseball operations David Stearns has twice he anticipates Alonso being the Opening Day first baseman in Queens. That wont stop teams from trying, but an offseason deal looks decidedly unlikely. Others Of Note As: Braves: Brewers: , , Cardinals: , , , Giants: , Guardians: , Mariners: Marlins: Mets: Nationals: , Orioles: Padres: Phillies: Rays: , Red Sox: , , Rockies: Royals: Tigers: Twins: Ernie Banks Jersey