Gambling content 21+. The New York Post may receive an affiliate commi sion if you sign up through our links. Read our for more information. The Houston Astros enter Monday nights game against the Atlanta Braves with a record of just 6-11, buried in last place in the AL West. At the beginning of the season, this looked like a matchup of superheavyweights. It still is if you only count offensive production. Thats because the Astros pitching staff is suddenly a disaster with a 5.23 ERA after 17 games. Meanwhile, Houstons offensive wRC+ of 130 ranks second in . The team above them? The Braves (131), who have also lived up to lofty offensive expectations thus far. This sets up nicely for a bet on the total for Monday nights game. Lets take a closer look at the matchup. Explore More Braves vs. Astros odds Team Run Line Moneyline Total Braves -1.5 (+134 -108 o9.5 (-118) Astros +1.5 (-162) -108 u9.5 (-104) Odds via Braves vs. Astros prediction The Astros xBA of .274 ranks first in baseball, and they own the lowest strikeout rate at 16.8%. The Braves xBA of .271 ranks second, while their 46.3% hard-hit rate ranks first. Both Dami Awoyinfa Jersey of these offenses enter Mondays matchup in dominant form, and will make nightmare matchups for two unproven starters. Due to the Astros stockpile of injuries, top prospect Spencer Arrighetti is up in the big leagues earlier than preferred. His first start was a disaster, as he allowed seven earned runs acro s three innings at Kansas City last week. Spencer Arrighettis MLB dedut last week was a disaster. Getty Images ZiPS projects a 4.50 ERA in 2024 for Arrighetti, who owned a Stuff+ of only 56 in his first outing. Darius Vines will start for Atlanta. He pitched to a 4.75 xFIP in two 2024 Triple-A starts, and a 3.98 ERA in 20 MLB innings last year. Vines fastball tops out at just 89, and his arsenal rates out well below league average. These have been the two best offenses in the league this season, and their preseason expectations, as well as current underlying results, suggest that their dominance will continue. Arrighetti is obviously better than he showed in his MLB debut against the Royals, but still a sub 4.50 ERA is unlikely this season. Hes backed by a bullpen which has been in shambles, too, and is also mi sing some key pieces. Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting Read about the Learn all about Braves vs. Astros pick The Astros could very well hit their way out of trouble against Vines and . Even a high total of 9.5 doesnt fully account for this situation, and there is value betting any price better than -130. Best bet: Over 9.5 (-115, | Play to -130) Caleb Ward Jersey